'中 브랜드와의 경쟁 및 전기차로 전환' 과제 직면 회사 절박함 강조…FT
폭스바겐이 중대한 도전에 직면하면서 폭스바겐 주가는 2022년 9월 블루메 CEO 취임 이후 거의 절반 가까이 하락, 블루메로 하여금 급진적 조치를 취하지 않을 수 없게 만들었다.
26일에 발표된 이번 감원 계획은 다음 달 폭스바겐의 이사회에 제출될 예정이며, 1990년대 제너럴 모터스(GM)와 IBM의 잔인한 감원을 뛰어넘는 기업 역사상 최대 규모의 감원 프로그램이다.
블루메는 이제 대규모 감원을 추진하고 그에 따른 구조조정 비용을 충당하고 부채를 줄이기 위해 다른 폭스바겐 자산을 매각할지 여부를 결정하는 동시에 차세대 차량 개발에 필요한 투자를 보장해야 하는 과제에 직면해 있다.
폭스바겐이 62만5000개 일자리 중 거의 6분의1을 없애고 4개 공장을 폐쇄한다 계획은 에버렌스 경매를 마무리한 지 이틀도 채 되지 않아 나왔다. UBS의 애널리스트 패트릭 험멜은 에버렌스 매각으로 인한 이익은 새로운 구조조정 계획 실행 비용으로 상쇄될 수 있으며, 폭스바겐이 주주 배당금 증액 가능성은 낮다고 말했다.
그는 "올해 하반기 수십억 유로 범위에 달할 수 있는 추가 구조조정 비용이 발생할 가능성이 매우 높다. 에버렌스 거래에 대한 모든 흥분은 주식 보유자의 관점에서 거의 사라졌다"고 말했다.
The positive view is VW will use proceeds of any sales for investment, while the sceptical take is that the money will simply finance continued inefficiencies, one person close to the company said.
VW investors will hope that any new sales will be as profitable as the Everllence auction. The near-10-month process - codenamed Project Nikolaus after German engineer Nikolaus Otto, a 19th-century pioneer of early gasoline-powered engines - ended with Bain trumping bids from private equity rivals CVC and EQT.
People close to all three bidders - codenamed Denmark, Spain and UK - said the auction had generated lucrative returns for VW and would go down as one of the most memorable in recent German dealmaking. One bidder said the auction process had been “brilliant”, adding: “I’ve never seen anything like it.”
The auction culminated late on Wednesday night as the company’s management and supervisory boards considered the offers. The suitors had handed in sealed bids with their best and final offers in the lobby of VW’s law firm, Linklaters, in Frankfurt at 7am that morning.
Bain, CVC and EQT had already been required to visit separate notaries the previous day, completing legal formalities in advance to speed up the signing of the deal once a winner was chosen. As they waited for a decision on Wednesday, each suitor returned to their separate notaries to await word from VW’s advisers, which included Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.
The unusual process was also intended to reduce the risk of leaks. Other precautions included asking VW’s own supervisory board members to hand over their mobile phones before they gathered at the carmaker’s Wolfsburg base to consider the final bids.
Another reason for the sealed bids was to address fears that EQT had an unfair advantage after teaming up to bid with VW’s major shareholders Porsche Automobil Holding and Qatar Investment Authority, the people said. Several members of VW’s supervisory board with connections to those shareholders were required to recuse themselves from deciding between the bids.
These steps were sufficient to convince the bidders the process had been fair, while driving up the valuation, said two of the people with knowledge of the process, who added that the bidders had racked up legal and consultancy costs of more than €10mn in a sign of their appetite to buy the unit.
In the end, all the bids valued the business close enough to €10bn to make non-financial aspects tip the scales, according to people familiar with the matter.
While all three parties had agreed similar job and site guarantees for Everllence until 2030, Bain’s overall package was deemed best based on its proposed price, shareholder agreement, sale and purchase contract and value creation plan, the people said.
The US firm also had a better reputation among the pivotal union and works council representatives. CVC, which had the backing of Canadian pension funds on its bid, was viewed as having been more aggressive on cost-cutting in the past, according to three of the people.
Bain also brought in its Asian team, which has expertise in the continent’s massive shipyards, and was willing to shoulder more of the potential risks and costs related to a Japanese probe into engine manufacturers over fuel consumption data, according to two of the people.
Bain declined to comment on the potential risks of the probe. Everllence said it did not manufacture the engines under investigation and was “not aware of any claims for damages or regulatory proceedings against Everllence or its employees in connection with this matter”.
Following the success of the Everllence auction in stoking competition between bidders, advisers are hoping that recent pitches to VW to sell crown jewels such as its motorcycle brand Ducati - an idea it explored in 2017 - or to list supercar maker Lamborghini will gain traction.
Some analysts said the likelihood of VW selling these brands was low and cautioned that offloading lossmaking assets such as PowerCo would be unlikely to be as lucrative as the Everllence sale.
The chief executive of Volkswagen’s US pick-up truck brand Scout told the FT this year that an IPO of that business was also an option. The company is conducting a feasibility study for bringing in outside investors to the Scout brand, one person familiar with the deliberations said.
VW’s bosses are also being forced to consider whether to save money by reducing the amount they invest in some of its businesses, such as PowerCo.
“The best thing would be just to stop investing and accept the fact that what you’ve spent so far are just sunk costs. I think that might be the best financial outcome,” said Hummel.
Volkswagen declined to comment on the potential sale of other significant assets. It said that a decision on how to use the proceeds from the Everllence sale would be taken at a later date.
Holding the cash on its balance sheet could reduce the pressure to keep cutting investments, but management could also face pressure to share the spoils with investors.
“When you look at their profitability and the cash flow in past years it’s not a silly idea to keep it,” said one person close to the company.
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